20.05.2020 (Ottumwacourier) - OTTUMWA — The 2020-21 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports and lower-ending stocks compared to the previous year.
Projections from the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand calls for this year’s soybean crop is to reach 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. Despite lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected up five percent from 2019-20 to 4.72 billion bushels.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2020-21 is forecast at 123.2 million tons, up 16.1 million from last year mainly on higher soybean production. Production forecasts are also higher for sunflower seed, peanuts and cottonseed.
Canola production is forecast lower on a reduced yield. The U.S. soybean crush for 2020-21 is projected at 2.13 billion bushels, up slightly from last year’s forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance partly offset by lower soybean meal exports.
Exports for U.S. soybeans are forecast at 2.05 billion bushels, up 375 million from the revised forecast for 2019-20. With higher global soybean import demand for 2020-21 led by expected gains for China, the U.S. export share is expected to rise to 34 percent from the record low of 30 percent set last year.
The U.S. ending stocks for 2020-21 are projected at 405 million bushels, down 175 million from the revised 2019-20 forecast. The 2020-21 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.20 per bushel, down 30 cents from last year.
Soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 per short ton, down $10 from 2019-20. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 29 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents from 2019-20.
The global oilseed outlook for 2020-21 includes larger supplies with lower beginning stocks offset by record production. Ending stocks are expected to decline modestly with rising use.
Global oilseed production for 2020-21 is projected at a record 605.9 million tons, up 30.7 million from last year mainly on higher soybean production. Global soybean production is forecast up 26.6 million tons to 362.8 million, with Brazil’s crop rising seven million tons to 131 million, Argentina’s crop is up 2.5 million tons to 53.5 million and U.S. production rising from last year’s decline.
Partly offsetting are smaller soybean crops projected for China and Ukraine. Global production of high-oil content seeds is projected up three percent from 2019-20 on increased canola production for Canada, Australia and Ukraine as well as higher sunflower seed production for Argentina and Ukraine.
Partly offsetting is lower sunflower seed production for Turkey. Global protein meal consumption outside of China is projected to increase two percent in 2020-21, down from the prior five-year average of three percent due to the slowing global economy.
Protein meal consumption in China at six percent is stronger than the prior few years, however, as China recovers from the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever. With higher protein meal demand, soybean exports are expected to increase eight million tons to 161.9 million.
China accounts for most of the increase in shipments with imports, rising four million tons to 96 million. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 98.4 million tons, down 1.9 million from 2019-20.
Lower year-over-year U.S. stocks offset higher stocks in China, Brazil and Argentina.