HAMBURG (July 30 2003) : Soybean supplies in the main exporting countries- the US, Brazil and Argentine - will remain relatively tight in September2003/February 2004 despite a large production rise, Hamburg-basednewsletter Oil World said.
It forecasts supplies in this period will rise 5.8 percent on the year to116.5 million tonnes, below the average supply growth of 6.8 percent inthe previous five seasons.
September 1 stocks in the three countries are forecast at 37.47 milliontonnes, up only 5 percent on the year and below previous expectations.
The figure depends on the outcome of the US soybean crop, which Oil Worldcurrently estimates at 79.0 million tonnes compared to the US Departmentof Agriculture's July estimate of 78.5 million tonnes and last season'scrop of 74.3 million tonnes.
"While this improvement of supply growth looks huge it must be seen inrelation to the average growth as well as to demand," Oil World said.
If forecasts total demand for supplies from the three countries will jumpto 79.32 million tonnes in this period from 75.20 million tonnes the sametime a year ago.
Low global vegetable oil stocks need to be replenished, raising demand forsoybeans.
To achieve the required increase in world soybean oil output Oil Worldestimates the US, Argentine and Brazil will have to raise soybeancrushings by 5.4 percent on the year in September 2003/February 2004 to47.81 million tonnes.-Reuters