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NEWS ADMIN

Mahamad Rodzi Abdul Ghani

DATE

14/09/2004

NEWS PROVIDER

Mahamad Rodzi Abdul Ghani

NEWS SOURCE

Dow Jones

CATEGORY

HEADLINE

SURVEY: NOPA Aug Soy Crush Seen Falling To 101.8 M
13/09/04 CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Soybean crush rates for August in theNational Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soybean crush report areexpected to fall from the previous report to about 101.8 million bushelsdue to a seasonal decline in available stocks at the end of the marketingyear, according to a survey of industry analysts.NOPA's August soybean crush report will be released Tuesday at 0730 CT(1230 GMT).In the previous NOPA report, crush for July was pegged at 108.660million bushels. Estimates for August crush ranged from 99.5 million to103.5 million bushels.Dan Cekander, market analyst for Fimat in Chicago, said while themonth of August typically is on the lower end of processing rates due toseasonally tight stocks at the end of the marketing year, which ends Sept.1, the crush rate was not as low as what was previously forecast."If they truly were able to crush at that rate, it seems to indicatethat 2003 soybean production was underestimated because the processorswere able to originate a significant amount of beans during August. Thatshould have been the tightest month supply wise," Cekander said.Dan Basse, industry analyst at AgResource in Chicago, agreed thatwhile the reduction is seasonal, it was not as severe as what was thoughtto be needed at the start of the year. Some help also came from earlyharvested soybeans in the southern U.S. that were shipped to crushingfacilities farther north."To some degree, the Delta beans helped relieve some of the tightness.But the USDA understated the crop. We found more beans than we thought wehad," Basse said.Earlier in the year, processors had anticipated crush rates down to 70million to 80 million bushels for the end of the year.Meanwhile, soyoil stocks are seen falling to around 902 millionpounds, down from the July NOPA oil stocks figure of 1.023 billion, as aresult of continued strong domestic demand coupled with smaller output dueto reduced crush.The NOPA report includes figures only from processors that are membersof the organization, and consequently reports a smaller number than theU.S. Census Bureau's crush report that follows later in the month.