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Mahamad Rodzi Abdul Ghani




Mahamad Rodzi Abdul Ghani


Dow Jones



USDA: Global 2004-05 Oilseed Production Seen Risin
13/09/04 - CEDAR FALLS, Iowa (Dow Jones)--The world oilseed productionforecast for 2004-05 was increased 1.8 million tons in September to 380.5million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday in itsOilseeds: Situation and Outlook report.An increase in the EU rapeseed crop, up 1.2 million tons to 14.2million tons, and an increase in India's soybean crop, accounted for mostof the increase. Other production increases this month include cottonseed,and sunflowerseed.The 2004/05 soybean production was increased to 144,000 tons thismonth as a lower U.S. production forecast, down 1.1 million tons to 77.2million tons, nearly offset a 1.3 million-ton increase in India'sproduction forecast, the report said.A reduction in forecast soybean imports for 2004/05 helped push worldoilseed trade lower in September. Total oilseed imports were lowered to74.5 million tons as soybean imports fell 987,000 tons to 63.5 milliontons. This mirrors a similar decline in soybean imports for 2003/04 andreflects the weaker demand for soybean imports observed in recent weeks.Reductions in soybean imports were noted for the EU, Egypt, Israel, andothers in 2003/04, and in China, Egypt, Malaysia and South Africa for2004/05.Soybean exports for 2003/04 were reduced nearly 1.0 million tons to55.5 million tons this month. A slower year-to-date export pace byArgentina accounted for much of the decline, with additional shortfallsnoted for the U.S. and Uruguay. Similarly, soybean exports were reduced1.2 million tons to 63.6 million tons in 2004/05. Nearly all-majorexporters were impacted with particular attention focused on the U.S.,Argentina, and Uruguay. The exception was Canada where the soybean exportforecast for both 2003/04 and 2004/05 was increased. Specializing inidentity preserved soybeans, year-to-date trade showed exports reaching880,000 tons in 2003/04, which in turn prompted an increase in the 2004/05export forecast to 950,000 tons, the USDA said.Forecast world oilseed crush for 2004/05 was increased 1.2 milliontons to 301.0 million tons, bolstered by crush increases for India and theEU following increases in soybean and rapeseed production, respectively.This contrasts with a 700,000-ton drop in 2003/04 oilseed crush thatfollowed this month's reduced soybean and sunflowerseed productionestimates for China. Lower world crush volume led to declines in2003/04-protein meal and vegetable oil production. For 2004/05, theincrease in crush volume led to higher production of protein meals andvegetable oils. Forecast world protein meal production rose 403,000 tonsto 206.6 million tons while vegetable oil production increased 410,000tons to 105.9 million tons.India's soybean meal export forecast for 2004/05 increased 400,000tons to 2.5 million tons this month. This more than offset lower soybeanmeal exports from the U.S. However, reduced sunflowerseed meal andfishmeal export forecasts pushed the total 2004/05 meal export forecastlower.World vegetable oil imports for 2004/05 were lowered this month withreductions in the soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil forecasts. Total importsdeclined 370,000 tons to 38.1 million tons with palm oil down 191,000 tonsto 20.9 million tons and soybean oil down 174,000 tons to 9.7 milliontons.Forecast world consumption of vegetable oil for 2004/05 was higher despitethe cut in the import forecast due to the larger rapeseed crush. Total2004/05 vegetable oil consumption is forecast to reach 105.1 million tons,up 238,000 tons from last month and 6% above the 2003/04 forecast, thereport noted.