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Mahamad Rodzi Abdul Ghani




Mahamad Rodzi Abdul Ghani


Dow Jones



USDA: World 2004/05 Oilseed Production Reduced To
CEDAR FALLS, Iowa (Dow Jones)--The world oilseed production forecastfor 2004/05 was reduced 338,000 tons in August to 378.8 million tons, theU.S. Department of Agriculture said Wednesday in its "Oilseed: WorldMarkets and Trade" report.The decline is in response to a lower U.S. soybean production forecastof 78.3 million tons, down 1.7 million tons from the previous month, thereport said. Offsetting this decline were increases in global cottonseed,rapeseed, sunflowerseed and peanut production.Increased cottonseed and peanut production forecasts were the resultof increases in U.S. production. U.S. cottonseed production increased662,000 tons in August to 6.7 million tons while U.S. peanut productionrose 214,000 tons to 2.0 million tons. Increased planted area andimproved yield projections prompted the increases.Similar yield increases helped push EU and Canadian rapeseedproduction forecasts higher this month. Canada's rapeseed crop is forecastto reach 7.2 million tons in 2004/05 while the EU rapeseed crop isexpected to reach 13.0 million tons. The global 2004/05 sunflowerseedproduction forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 26.1 million tons thismonth in response to an increase in Russian production.World oilseed trade forecasts for 2003/04 and 2004/05 were reducedthis month primarily due to lower soybean imports by China, Thailand andIndonesia. The global soybean import forecast for 2003/04 was lowered 2.0million tons to 55.6 million tons while the 2004/05-import forecastdeclined nearly 1.2 million tons to 64.5 million tons. The decline inChina's soybean imports, down 1.1 million tons to 16.9 million tons in2003/04, and 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million tons in 2004/05, reflectsthe slower pace of imports corresponding to the decline in crush margins.Indonesia's soybean import forecast was lowered 400,000 tons in2003/04 and 200,000 tons in 2004/05 in response to a slower import pace ashigh soybean prices reduced demand for food use. Thailand's soybean importforecast was reduced 450,000 tons in 2003/04 and 400,000 in 2004/05 inresponse to continued difficulties with avian flu that has reduced demandfor soybeans and poultry feed. World soybean exports were lowered 1.7million tons in 2003/04 to 56.4 million tons and 1.5 million tons in2004/05 to 64.8 million tons.Other oilseed trade changes this month include a reduction in China'speanut exports for 2003/04 and an increase in China's rapeseed importforecast in 2004/05. China's peanut export forecast was reduced 150,000tons in response to an observed decline in the export pace this year.Exports are forecast to reach 900,000 tons this year, 192,000 tons below2002/03 and near the level reached in 2001/02. China's rapeseed importforecast for 2004/05 was increased 200,000 tons to 1.4 million tons.Growing world supplies of rapeseed, coupled with reduced soybean andcottonseed crush and continued growing demand for vegetable oil in China,prompted the increase in rapeseed imports.Global oilseed ending stocks rose significantly this month for both2003/04 and 2004/05. Increased Brazilian soybean stocks in 2003/04, andincreased soybean stocks in Argentina, Brazil and the U.S. in 2004/05accounted for most of the increase. World soybean stocks are forecast toreach 36.2 million tons in 2003/04, up 2.7 million tons, and 50.2 milliontons in 2004/05, up 3.2 million tons.Forecast world protein meal production was reduced this month for both2003/04 and 2004/05. Protein meal production was lowered 2.0 million tonsin 2003/04 and 1.6 million tons in 2004/05 to 192.6 million tons and 206.2million tons respectively. Much of the decline in protein meal productionwas due to a reduction in soybean crush, primarily in the U.S., China,Thailand and Brazil.Brazil's soybean meal production forecast for 2003/04 was reduced 1.0million tons to 23.6 million tons in response to lower export demand. Thedecline in 2004/05 was not as dramatic with production down 273,000 tonsto 27.4 million tons. U.S. soybean meal production, which increased341,000 tons to 32.6 million tons in 2003/04, was lowered 408,000 tons to35.1 million tons in 2004/05 in response to the lower soybean productionforecast this month.Reduced soybean meal production in China and Thailand is in response tolower demand for meal and associated declines in soybean imports.Global protein meal trade was also reduced this month. Global importswere reduced 746,000 tons in 2003/04 and 576,000 tons in 2004/05. Reduceddemand for soybean meal imports dominated the changes this month, led bylower imports by Indonesia and Thailand due to reduced demand for poultryfeed. Imports were also reduced for the EU, Turkey, and the U.S. for2003/04. Brazil's exports absorbed most of the impact of reduced tradevolume with soybean meal exports lowered 1.5 million tons in 2003/04 and523,000 tons in 2004/05.Global vegetable oil production was reduced 377,000 tons in 2003/04and 168,000 tons in 2004/05 to 100.8 million tons and 105.5 million tonsrespectively. While a decline in soybean oil production dominated thechange in 2003/04, increased rapeseed and sunflowerseed oil productionpartially offset reduced soybean and cottonseed oil production in 2004/05.World cottonseed oil production was reduced 103,000 tons to 4.2million tons in 2004/05 due to a 500,000-ton decline in cottonseed crushin China. Offsetting some of this decline was an increase in rapeseedcrush in China and sunflowerseed crush in Russia.Global vegetable oil imports were reduced for 2003/04 and 2004/05.Soybean oil accounted for a significant share of the reduction in bothyears, down 186,000 tons in 2003/04 and 199,000 tons in 2004/05.Significant reductions in soybean oil import forecasts were noted forAlgeria, Iran, India and Malaysia for 2003/04 and for China and Malaysiain 2004/05. Reductions in soybean oil export forecasts were entered forMalaysia and Brazil in both years. Palm oil imports by China wereincreased 103,000 tons in 2004/05, helping offset lower soybean oil andcottonseed oil supplies in 2004/05.