10/08/05 RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters): Brazil's 2005/06 (October-September)soya output is set to rise by 22 percent to a record 63.1 million tonnesfrom 51.7 million tonnes this year, private analysts Celeres said onMonday.
The previous record was 52 million tonnes in 2002/03, according to thegovernment's crop supply agency Confab. In a preliminary forecast, Celeressaid that the sharp rise would be due to a 20.7 percent jump in averageyield compared with this year's drought-damaged crop and a 1.1- percentexpansion in the planted area.
Celeres said in a weekly report that given favourable crop weather averageyields should recover towards the historical level of 2.69 tonnes perhectare, from 2.23 t/ha in 2004/05 when prolonged drought hit crops inmajor producer Rio Grande do Sul and Paranoia states.
Soyabean plantings are seen rising to 23.4 million hectares, from 23.2million hectares in 2004/05. The biggest increases are expected in MateoGross, Paranoia and Bahia states.
But planting will fall sharply in No 3 soya producer Rio Grande do Soul,Celebes said.
Last week Agriculture Minister Roberto Rodrigues said he expected the cropwould reach 60 million tonnes in 2005/06, up from an officially estimated50.2 million tonnes this year.
Private analysts FNP Consultoria forecast a 7 percent rise in soyabeanoutput to 56.1 million tonnes in 2005/06 despite a 1.6 million hectaresdrop in plantings to 21 million hectares.
On June 10, the US Department of Agriculture forecast that Brazil wouldboost production to 62 million tonnes next year.
It expected little change in the soya area and an average yield of 2.7tonnes per hectare, assuming normal weather and control of Asian rustdisease.