3/10/2005 - Soybean exports are increased 35 million bushels to 1,045million bushels reflecting record shipments to China and reducedcompetitor supplies, especially in Brazil. Soybean crush is reduced to1,650 million bushels, as lower domestic soybean meal disappearance isonly partly offset by higher prospective soybean meal exports. U.S.soybean ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 410 million bushels,down 30 million bushels from last month, but still the highest since1986/87. Projected soybean oil stocks are reduced due to lower productionand increased exports.
Price forecasts for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are all raisedthis month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2004/05 isprojected at $5.05 to $5.45 per bushel compared with $4.80 to $5.40 perbushel last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 21 to 23 cents perpound, up 0.5 cent on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices areforecast at $160 to $170 per short ton compared with $150 to $165 lastmonth.
Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 386.5 million tons,down 3.7 million tons from last month, but still 50.1 million tons abovelast year's record. Global soybean production is reduced 4.5 million tonsto 224.1 million tons. Despite the reduction, production is up 19 percentfrom 2003/04. Soybean crops are lowered for Brazil and Paraguay reflectingthe effects of drought in both countries. Brazil's crop is projected at 59million tons, down 4 million tons from last month because of dry weatherthrough early March in southern states, particularly Rio Grande do Sul,Parana, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Other oilseed changes include higherrapeseed production in Australia and increased cottonseed production inIndia and Brazil.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2004/05 are reduced 4.8 million tons to62.4 million tons primarily due to reductions for soybeans in SouthAmerica. Global soybean stocks are projected sharply lower this month, butstill a record at 56 million tons, 18.5 million tons above 2003/04. Globaloilseed trade is reduced this month, primarily reflecting lowerprospective rapeseed exports for the EU.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World AgriculturalOutlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This reportwas prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
J.B. PENNACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE