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 World Oilseeds Situation and Outlook - February 20

The global oilseeds production estimate was increased for both 1999/2000and 2000/01 to 303.5 and 305.2 million tons, respectively. This change wasprompted by increases in Argentine and Brazilian soybean productionestimates due to expected higher yields across the region and helped by anincrease in area planted in Brazil. Combined production for both Argentinaand Brazil was increased 1.2 million tons in 1999/2000 and 1.4 million tonin 2000/01. The global oilseeds trade forecast was increased 821,000 tonsto 64.0 million tons. The increase was primarily due to increased soybeanexports by Brazil and Argentina, partially offset by a reduction in theU.S. soybean export forecast. The global soybean import forecast wasincreased nearly 900,000 tons this month with China, up 800,000 tons, andMexico, up 100,000 tons. China�s rapeseed import forecast was reduced200,000 tons this month due in part to the increase in soybean imports.World oilseed crush was also raised this month in response to theincreased production expected in South America and larger copra crush forthe Philippines for 1999/2000 and 2000/01. Total oilseed crush wasincreased 555,000 tons in 2000/01 but was nearly unchanged for 1999/2000as the increase in copra crush offset declines in soybean crush for theUnited States, Brazil, and Asia. Global oilseed ending stocks wereincreased for both 1999/2000 and 2000/01 reaching 32.4 and 30.3 milliontons respectively. However, stocks are expected to decline year-to-yearfrom 1999/2000 primarily due to lower rapeseed stocks in Canada. Soybeanending stock levels were increased in South America mostly for 1999/2000and carried over into the current year. The U.S. ending stocks forecastrose to 9.4 million tons in 2000/01, an increase of nearly 1.5 milliontons from the 1999/2000 stock level. As a result, the year-to-year changein global soybean ending stocks for 2000/01 shifted from a net decline of600,000 tons in January to a net increase of 326,000 tons this month.With the increase in crush for 2000/01, production of soybean meal and oilrose. Total soybean meal production was increased 390,000 tons to 114.4million tons. Increased production in South America and China offset adecline in U.S. soybean meal production. Similarly, soybean oil productionwas increased 109,000 tons to 26.0 million tons with South American andChinese production increases offsetting declines in the United States.Production of rapeseed meal and oil were reduced due to the decline incrush in China. Global protein meal trade for 2000/01 was nearly unchangedthis month as lower soybean meal exports were offset by increased coprameal exports from the Philippines. A similar situation exists with globalvegetable oil trade except the increase in coconut oil exports more thanoffset the decline in soybean oil exports for 2000/01. Much of theadditional coconut oil is expected to be imported by the European Union.With the increase in production of meal and oil this month, global endingstocks of both products for 2000/01 were increased.


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