30.09.2021 (www.agriculture.com) - On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets finish mostly lower.
In its September Quarterly Grains Stock Report, the USDA pegged soybean stocks higher than the trade expected. Plus, in a separate report, the USDA revised upward the U.S. soybean 202/2021 production by 80.0 million bushels.
At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 2 1/4¢ lower at $5.36. March futures closed 2 1/4¢ higher at $5.44. May corn futures settled 2 3/4¢ lower at $5.49.
November soybean futures settled 27 1/4¢ lower at $12.56.
Jan. soybean futures settled 28 1/2¢ lower at $12.65. March soybean futures ended 26 1/2¢ lower at $12.72.
Dec. wheat futures closed 15 3/4¢ higher at $7.25.
Dec. soymeal futures closed $12.50 per short ton lower at $328.70.
Dec. soy oil futures finished 0.86 of a cent higher at 58.69¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 0.07 higher (+0.09%) at $74.90. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 305 points lower (-0.89%) at 34,085 points.
Bob Linneman, Kluis Advisors, says that it’s important to note that today’s USDA report had big changes in it a year ago.
“Welcome to the final trading day of the third quarter. Corn and soybean prices were quietly stronger on Wednesday as traders made final adjustments to positions ahead of the USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Recall that this report one year ago had major changes to stocks. The adjustments caught the trade off guard as the report made bullish adjustments that many linked back to a smaller final crop. Many traders and analysts saw the September stocks report last year as the moment when the USDA fixed the overstated production that was released in the January report, nine months earlier," Linneman stated in a note to customers.
Linneman added, "We all know the USDA can throw a curveball at any time. A great way to manage risk is to protect current prices with short-term put options. Strong basis levels as harvest gets underway are a good sign for the bulls, but prices can quickly change direction."
Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows weak demand figures for corn. Here are the totals:
Corn = 370,000 metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade’s expectations of 400,000 to 900,000 mt.
Soybeans = 1.09 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 700,000 mt. to 1.2 mmt.
Wheat = 290,100 mt.
Soybean meal = 229,700 mt.